98 its highest monthly decline since September 2003

The weather was particularly gloomy European places in the month of may: the DJ Stoxx 600 a transferred 5.24, posting its worst monthly performance since January 2003 and its first month of decline since October. The CAC 40 fell by 4.98, its highest monthly decline since September 2003. Yesterday, the indices of the old Continent spent the major part of the meeting in the red, returning later in the day. The publication Wednesday of the minutes of the last meeting of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Recalling that it was ready to respond by statistics on inflation revived concerns about the pursuit of monetary tightening, with, in the background, a risk of slower growth. "The decline in equity markets started in a context of renewed inflation expectations under the effect of an acceleration in prices of raw materials", notes the Credit Agricole Asset Management team.

In recent weeks, investors have become extremely sensitive to macroeconomic publications, and nervous markets, as illustrated by the rise of volatility. However, the decline was not uniform in terms of sector. Since the annual high point, May 9 (to 1.417,25 points), the S & P 350 ( 6,96), the ten segments of the index posted losses ranging from 3.80 to 9.66. Industrial values and the segment comprising among others the construction and mining, at the top of the increases on the first four months of the year, have suffered the most during this period of correction.

"Sell in may and go away."

Technology have also been sentencing, despite their overall performance in line with the index before the end of April. "Those very beta and cyclical sectors have been more affected," commented Charles Dautresme, strategist at Standard & Poor's actions. Conversely, health, services, community and consumer base (including retail) resisted better, "as a result of their defensive patterns and, for some segments of the rating, their reduced exposure to the dollar", repeats.

However, the strategist is not a clear correlation between sensitivity to exchange rates and the decline of the sectors. "During this recent consolidation phase, there was more opposition between defensive and cyclic as the theme of the greenback", confirms Thierry Cantet, European strategist at Société Générale. However, according to François Chevallier, Economist strategist of VP Finance, is awareness "of a change in trend of the dollar which explains the stronger correction of European actions to American actions". For him, as for the majority of the professionals, the risk of an imminent crash is to be rejected "in view of the undervaluation of shares and the fundamental right".

But if a consensus emerges on this point, the opinion of professionals appear still very shared on the direction of the European indices for the next few months. Believe a study of the site ADVFN stock information, thinning on equity markets is not yet the order of the day. Since 1987, the CAC 40 is almost stable in May and June, but displays of the average losses of 1.85 in August and 2.45 in September. The stock market adage does not: "Sell in may and go away"