Per capita GDP should flirt with 3000 this year

A mid-December, 1978, at the end of a long meeting in Beijing, of the central Committee of the Communist Party, person not anticipates new Chinese revolution. The four days of debates (18-22) have been strained and observers retain especially the appeal at the end of internal clashes between conservative and modern, which devour the organization policy since Mao's death two years earlier. It speaks well of "concentration in the agricultural sector" but the word "reform" is is cited only once in the long text which is presented to the masses. But is this enough to upset the contemporary history of China.

Thirty years later, the authorities celebrate, today, the anniversary of the launch of what is now called the "political opening" of Deng Xiaoping. In the public exhibitions in major cities of the country, spectacular statistics illustrate the transformation of an almost medieval nation late 1970s economic power world.

Reassurance

Doped with pragmatic and gradual reform "must cross the river by touching stones", said Deng Xiaoping the country, which has recorded since 1978 a 9 average annual growth generates now 6 of global gross domestic product (GDP) instead of only 1.8 thirty years ago. More than 200 million people were out of poverty in record time. Per capita GDP should flirt with $ 3,000 this year. Providing about a tenth of exports in the world, China is the largest global producer of textile, toys, household appliance but high-tech products.

Hammered on the large chains of State, these performances must testify to the success of the Chinese Communist Party, which has preserved a form of legitimacy while having renounced the bulk of its Marxist-Leninist tenets, but also reassure a population unusually distressed by the global economic crisis.

Since September, China is concerned. After having long believed its immunity against the global slowdown, the country fears save, next year, one of the worst growth over the last 20 years. The World Bank says that Chinese GDP could increase by 7.5 in 2009. The export-oriented companies, which provide a large share of GDP (38.8 compared to 48.8 for public and private consumption) are abused by the decline in demand in Europe and the United States. For the first time since 2001, the country has even recorded a decline of its exports in November and thousands of factories operating with low margins have been brutally close their doors in recent weeks, particularly in the southeast of the country.

Degraded social climate

Yesterday, the "people's daily" worried openly of the degradation of the social climate. The employment situation could be worse than in the 1990s, believes the newspaper of the party. In the Dans les qui viennent, près d' un million de jeunes diplômés ne trouvant pas d' emploi pourraient, cette fois, venir ajouter leur mécontentement à celui des les qui, près d' un de trouvant des ouvriers les mois qui d' un de diplômés pas fois that come, nearly one million young graduates finding employment cannot, this time, added their discontent to a des les qui, près d' un de trouvant des ouvriers les mois qui d' un de diplômés pas les les qui, près d' un de trouvant des ouvriers les mois qui d' un de diplômés pas qui qui, près d' un de trouvant des ouvriers les mois qui d' un de diplômés pas, près d' un près d' un de trouvant des ouvriers les mois qui d' un de diplômés pas de de trouvant des ouvriers les mois qui d' un de diplômés pas trouvant des ouvriers les mois qui d' un de diplômés pas trouvant trouvant des ouvriers les mois qui d' un de diplômés pas des ouvriers les mois qui d' un de diplômés pas des ouvriers les mois qui d' un de diplômés pas des workers les months qui qui d' un de diplômés d' un d' un de diplômés de de diplômés graduates pas pas qui viennent, près d' un million de jeunes diplômés ne trouvant pas d' emploi pourraient, cette fois, venir ajouter leur mécontentement à celui des les qui, près d' un de trouvant des ouvriers les mois qui d' un de diplômés pas fois dans les qui viennent, près d' un million de jeunes diplômés ne trouvant pas d' emploi pourraient, cette fois, venir ajouter leur mécontentement à celui des les qui, près d' un de trouvant des ouvriers les mois qui d' un de diplômés pas fois

These threats, Beijing continues to rent his activism. Tuesday evening, before Robert Zoellick, the President of the World Bank, passage to Beijing, the Prime Minister, Wen Jiabao, recalled that the Government had already deployed 4,000 billion yuan stimulus (a bit more of 400 billion euros) and would focus its efforts on the rise in the standard of living of the population, especially in the rural provinces. "Ultimately, we want that consumption promotes economic development", insisted before plea, as Deng Xiaoping thirty years ago, for "progressive" reforms With a not yet fully convertible currency, the price of gasoline, water and electricity always under control of the State and public mastodons keeping hands on several sectors of the economy (telecoms, finance, energy, media...), the country still has much to do.