With the subprime crisis it broke so much

This is crazy as the look changes on a same reality. Three years ago, nothing was more. The France was unemployed, the budget was not required, growth was much too slow. It was time that it changes, according to Ségolène. Or to make a break, according to Nicolas. With the "sub-prime" crisis, it broke so much... that the 2006 year now resembles a paradise lost. It was good time where 25,000 unemployed disappeared monthly files of the so-called still the ANPE employment pole recording today 80,000 more each month. It was a time where the State contained a deficit less than EUR 50 billion, while Bercy experts provide today more than 120 billion in 2009, even if they dare not say. And the production will decline this year of more than 2, perhaps 3 or 4, whereas it had risen by more than 2 in 2006. Nothing is more. A few encouraging signs appear time to another, but the unemployment figures will stopping the atmosphere for long, very long months.

And yet... What is it if goes wrong Suppose a black scenario where the activity moves back of 4 this year, and again by more than 1 next year. Production would then be in 2010... at the level of 2005, year of finally on misfortune. The French population to increase by around 2.5 at the same time, the output would be of the same order as in 2004, a still fairly remote era of medieval poverty. Similarly, unemployment is now at the same level as that famous year 2006. The number of job-seekers may surpass 3 million in the fall. But he was already above the bar for more than three years, at the end of the 1990s. And also after the recession of 1993 (according to the old data, the change of definition last month preventing any "connection" series). Of course, this was not a period of great happiness. Unemployment is still a terrible waste. But this was not the chaos, which is often promised today.

What is true for France is more for the planet. Even assuming that the IMF has grossly overestimated 2 its forecasts of growth (officially 1.3 this year and 1.9 next year), global production in 2010 would be the same order as in 2007. And therefore 30 greater than it was in 2000! The crisis is not only the consequence of an unfortunate error of a few American Bankers. It also fixes the massive excesses that fueled the strongest period of growth that the world has ever known.

But we are not going to go back: we're going elsewhere. And for at least three reasons. First, we today look down and not to the top. More question, for example, to buy a House by saying that "in any event" on the sell more expensive in a few years. This simple change in advance is enough to stop the machine. Then, the activity change of nature, form, purpose. If French manufacturing output was unscrewed from 18 in one year, returning in February 2009 to its level seen fifteen years earlier, she will perhaps never exceed its peak in February 2008. French production like steel or cars will never return to its previous highs. Finally, the excess passed are listed in our accounts. Step in the flow of production or income, but in the stock of debts well will have to repay. Debts of companies and individuals, whose weight has increased by half in a decade (reported to GDP). Debt of the State, which explodes today. Of course, the public debt will not go into a black hole. It is just a transfer of income. But this transfer will move all the French (everyone pays taxes, does that VAT which is the largest of them) to those who had enough money to lend, France or abroad. When there is no inflation to delete it, the public debt is a formidable factor of inequality between generations, and also between rich and poor. This is crazy what can forget it in France.