Of course this is not engraved in marble

Growth Highway, the France car seems to be stuck in the second. Its economy is travelling on the right queue. Slow-moving vehicle! For more than a decade, it has certainly never demoted first. Its growth has consistently exceeded 1, according to the figures heavily revised just published the Insee. But it barely pass the third. After the year 2000, its gross domestic product growth has been less than 2 except in 2004, affected by the bad year 2003. A vexing delay, in particular for the Government, which routinely provides the France exceed this speed (except... in 2004, where it had predicted 1.7). The same scenario may occur this year. The Minister Thierry Breton provides 2 to 2.5 growth. If the activity does not accelerate in the second half, which is today the most likely, the production would increase of just 1.9. In a world which advances two to three times faster! Atony undoubtedly good news the Apostles of "decay". Yet it is large threats, because the country the largest balance its accounts and create solid jobs when it initiates not the fourth.

The France would be restricted as a vulgar mopeds In perspective, it resembles a car slowing inexorably. Growth rose from 5.6 per year in the years 1960 to 3.4 in the 1970s (those of "the crisis"), then 2.6 in the 1980s, 2 in the 1990s and 1.5 since then. It is near the level of American life during the post-war decades, but it loses ground to the United States since a quarter of a century. The true decline is. It remains to understand.

Believe some, it is an application which would be too low. The French would not buy enough. But who could pay more Consumers have already declined their savings effort to increase their spending. Last year, they have set aside less than 15 of their income, the lowest proportion since more than a decade. And their debt climbs on a slope of 10! They can certainly continue on this track... but not very long. To spend more, should they win more. Their employers have unfortunately not the means to grant generous increases. Beyond the mégaprofits largely made abroad by the behemoths such as Total or Sanofi, the sharing of resources between employees and business is stable over time.

Could the second engine of the application, investment, turn faster Some manufacturers spend much... abroad. In France, the effort of equipment grew last year ( 3.6), but had to borrow. Companies have self-funded just 70 of their capital investment in 2005, the lowest level for 20 years. And the rise of interest rates that began will outwit the use of the loan. The third engine of the application, export, fell down, even if its dashboard gives hope a restart. French companies are losing market share. As pointed out recently by Christian Noyer, the Governor of the Bank of France, in his annual letter to the President of the Republic, "the degradation observed on the last three years amounts to a"loss"of the order of three points of GDP growth." In other words, foreign trade has slowed the growth of 1 per year!

In these conditions, a revival of the application by an increased budget deficit would be dangerous. It would increase public debt that the authorities already have the greatest difficulty in control. And it would benefit mainly to foreign manufacturers. The relief will not come more than a monetary stimulus: even after tightening practiced by the European Central Bank, interest rates are at a historic floor and are likely to rise.

The application is therefore the problem or the solution. As always when there is interest in the long term, is the offer with. Have the speed of the France, "potential" growth, with its workforce of its fleet of machines, its capacity for innovation, decreased In work done in 2003, the France Bank economists it been evaluated to 2.5 in the short term, and then around 2 on horizon 2050. The direction of the forecast of the Ministry of Finance issued in 2004 a somewhat lower estimate. The OECD is 2. Other experts have calculated much less favourable figures. Looking at the reality that is not such that it could become, Patrick Artus, Bank Ixis CIB and Frédérique Sachwald, IFRI (French Institute of international relations), arrive each at a rate barely exceeding 1. If the calculations are complex, they can be summed up simply. The active population will stagnate, and then decrease slightly (0.1 year) 2008. Companies less quickly renew their machines (in the industry, the Park would have even started shrinking). At best, the equipment will therefore contribute only to a few tenths of a point of growth. Remain the productivity gains expected. Various studies (Bank of France, UN) lead to an estimate of less than 1 year. Less work, more than capital punishment, limited effectiveness: this is France, why your growth is soft.

Of course, this is not engraved in marble. The French are few to work, and they work shortly. There are therefore margins of growth in the amount of work, including at the senior, youth, women. The investment is not required to drag. It is not written that the French University must live in destitution, or that the expenses of research and development must remain at 2.2 of GDP in France while they are approaching 3 in the United States and exceed this level in Sweden or the Japan. But if none of this changes, then it is likely that the France car be condemned the queue right.